
REMEMBER: THE NEW PLAN B, VOLUME 3.0 IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR PRE-ORDER FROM EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE (link below). There is no better New Year’s Resolution reading.
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Earth Policy Institute
Plan B 2.0 Book Byte
For Immediate Release
November 27, 2007
BUILDING NEW INDUSTRIES AND CREATING NEW JOBS IN A PLAN B ECONOMY
http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch12_ss6.htm
Lester R. Brown
Building a new economy, one that can sustain economic progress, involves phasing out old industries, restructuring existing ones, and creating new ones. This new economy will be powered by renewable sources of energy, will have a more diverse transport system–relying more on rail, buses, and bicycles, and less on cars–and will recycle everything. For example, coal use will be phased out, replaced by efficiency gains in many countries, but also by natural gas, as in the United Kingdom, and by wind power, as in Denmark and Germany.
The world automobile industry will face a modest restructuring as it shifts from the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to the gas-electric hybrid, the diesel-electric hybrid, plug-in hybrids, or high-efficiency diesel. This will require a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers and automobile mechanics.
The new economy will also bring major new industries, ones that either do not yet exist or are just beginning. Wind electricity generation is one such industry, incorporating three subsidiary industries: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. Now in its embryonic stage, this promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy. Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into cheap electricity, becoming part of the landscape, generating income and jobs in rural communities throughout the world.
As wind power emerges as a mainstream low-cost source of electricity, it will spawn another industry–hydrogen production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a large, unused capacity during the night when electricity use drops. With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners can turn on the hydrogen generators, converting the wind power into hydrogen. This can then be used to run power plants now fueled with natural gas. The wind turbine will replace the coal mine, the oil well, and the gas field.
Among the many changes in the world food economy will be the continuing shift to fish farming. Aquaculture, the fastest growing subsector of the world food economy, has expanded at 9 percent a year since 1990. The farming of fish, particularly omnivorous species such as carp, catfish, and tilapia, is likely to continue expanding rapidly simply because these fish convert grain into animal protein so efficiently. With this aquacultural growth comes the need for a rapidly expanding aquafeed industry, one where feeds are formulated by fish nutritionists, much as they are for the poultry industry today.
Bicycle manufacturing and servicing is a growth industry. As recently as 1965, world production of cars and bikes was essentially the same, with each at nearly 20 million, but as of 2003 bike production had climbed to over 100 million per year compared with 42 million cars. This growth in bicycle sales reflects growth in the ranks of those reaching the bicycle level of affluence, principally in Asia. Among industrial countries, the urban transport model being pioneered in the Netherlands and Denmark gives a sense of the bicycle’s future role worldwide.
As bicycle use expands, interest in battery-assisted bikes will also grow. Similar to existing bicycles, except for a tiny battery-powered electric motor that can either power the bicycle entirely or partially, its soaring sales are expected to continue climbing.
Yet another growth industry is increasing the productivity of water. Just as the last half-century was devoted to raising land productivity, this half-century will be focused on Read the rest of this entry »