Fun with Housing Numbers! How the Gov Pumps the Dow w/ False Info
It’s fascinating to watch the way the numbers jump up and down. For example, last week the Bush administration’s ‘analysts’ announced that the U.S. had unexpectedly large oil reserves. Accordingly, oil prices droppe d. Not 48 hours later, it comes out that, in reality, the U.S. reserves are smaller than expected. Oil prices went back up, but not quite as much. What’s more, the initial news helped steady the stock market while the ‘revision’ had little impact. Here’s the detailed rundown on that bit of slipperiness: LINK
TODAY, we don’t have to wait 48 hours to watch the numbers dance. Today, we can watch the fun in real time! Below are three links. I’ll intro each one. For kicks, you should open each one in a different browser tab so you can switch back and forth.
1. ONE BBC NEWS October 25 Here we have a BBC News report from 25. October which cites the U.S. Comerce Department as stating that new home sales are down 23% in September vs. one year ago and 8% vs. the prior month’s. Of course, this is great news for the environment as newly built homes are unnecessary in a nation with more than sufficient existing housing. Unless, of course, all new home construction followed George Monbiot’s absolutely achievable carbon-reduction plan. But I digress. The article is brief, mentioning that this drastic downturn could, of course, fuel a big fat recession in the U.S..
2. Bloomberg Article #1 October 25 This one went up about 8:00AM PST, I believe. Bloomberg’s writer reports that sales of new U.S. homes are probably down to the lowest level in a decade. Probably. First time I’ve ever seen that word used in a Bloomberg headline. Leaves a little room for restatement, right?
3. Bloomberg Article #2 October 25 Two hours later, the ‘real’ numbers are out, and guess what? The U.S. Commerce Department NOW says new home sales went UP in September by almost 5%!!! Hoorah! BOOM BAM! No recession! No worries! What the fuck do those Brits know, anyway? Sales down 23%??? No sir. That was a computer glitch. No, they’re actually up. Oh, and by the way, we’ve revised the sales data for the August DOWNWARD, but who cares about August, baby? It’s September we’re talking about and September was nothing but roses!Go figure. The Dow is still off on rising oil prices, but just imagine if the Commerce Department had BAD news. We’d be in for a rough day on Wall Street. I’m going to state, very clearly and right now, that at some point in the coming months, September 2007 new home sales numbers will be revised and will show a less rosy outlook. However, at that point, nobody will care. Our government is fudging numbers left and right and up and down. It’s called delaying the inevitable meltdown. Until after we hit Iran. Until after October 2008, if possible (unlikely). Before you come to the conclusion that I’m bashing Republicans only, I’m fully aware that Democrats can call bullshit on this at any time. But they’re keeping their mouths zipped, for a whole lot of what should be obvious reasons.
In other news, it’s my son Justice’s birthday! He’s FIVE! Hoorah!! I love, love, love that boy.
