Earth Policy Update #68: Sustainability Brings Jobs, Profits 27 November 2007

REMEMBER: THE NEW PLAN B, VOLUME 3.0 IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR PRE-ORDER FROM EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE (link below). There is no better New Year’s Resolution reading.
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Earth Policy Institute
Plan B 2.0 Book Byte
For Immediate Release
November 27, 2007

BUILDING NEW INDUSTRIES AND CREATING NEW JOBS IN A PLAN B ECONOMY

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch12_ss6.htm

Lester R. Brown

Building a new economy, one that can sustain economic progress, involves phasing out old industries, restructuring existing ones, and creating new ones. This new economy will be powered by renewable sources of energy, will have a more diverse transport system–relying more on rail, buses, and bicycles, and less on cars–and will recycle everything. For example, coal use will be phased out, replaced by efficiency gains in many countries, but also by natural gas, as in the United Kingdom, and by wind power, as in Denmark and Germany.

The world automobile industry will face a modest restructuring as it shifts from the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to the gas-electric hybrid, the diesel-electric hybrid, plug-in hybrids, or high-efficiency diesel. This will require a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers and automobile mechanics.

The new economy will also bring major new industries, ones that either do not yet exist or are just beginning. Wind electricity generation is one such industry, incorporating three subsidiary industries: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. Now in its embryonic stage, this promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy. Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into cheap electricity, becoming part of the landscape, generating income and jobs in rural communities throughout the world.

As wind power emerges as a mainstream low-cost source of electricity, it will spawn another industry–hydrogen production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a large, unused capacity during the night when electricity use drops. With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners can turn on the hydrogen generators, converting the wind power into hydrogen. This can then be used to run power plants now fueled with natural gas. The wind turbine will replace the coal mine, the oil well, and the gas field.

Among the many changes in the world food economy will be the continuing shift to fish farming. Aquaculture, the fastest growing subsector of the world food economy, has expanded at 9 percent a year since 1990. The farming of fish, particularly omnivorous species such as carp, catfish, and tilapia, is likely to continue expanding rapidly simply because these fish convert grain into animal protein so efficiently. With this aquacultural growth comes the need for a rapidly expanding aquafeed industry, one where feeds are formulated by fish nutritionists, much as they are for the poultry industry today.

Bicycle manufacturing and servicing is a growth industry. As recently as 1965, world production of cars and bikes was essentially the same, with each at nearly 20 million, but as of 2003 bike production had climbed to over 100 million per year compared with 42 million cars. This growth in bicycle sales reflects growth in the ranks of those reaching the bicycle level of affluence, principally in Asia. Among industrial countries, the urban transport model being pioneered in the Netherlands and Denmark gives a sense of the bicycle’s future role worldwide.

As bicycle use expands, interest in battery-assisted bikes will also grow. Similar to existing bicycles, except for a tiny battery-powered electric motor that can either power the bicycle entirely or partially, its soaring sales are expected to continue climbing.

Yet another growth industry is increasing the productivity of water. Just as the last half-century was devoted to raising land productivity, this half-century will be focused on (more…)

In Case You Think Bernanke Has any Real Power 16 November 2007

“We don’t want the dollar to collapse instead of doing something good for Opec”. - Saudi Prince Saud Al-Faisal. See below. This kind of thing has to make you nervous if you have any savings in the dollar or U.S. stocks. I’m telling you, it’s not that hard to open a Swiss bank account (or so I’m told-if anyone out there wants to open one for me, go right ahead.)
SOURCE

Saudi minister warns of dollar collapseSaturday, 17th November 2007

The dollar could collapse if Opec officially admits considering changing the pricing of oil into alternative currencies such as the euro, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister has warned.

Prince Saud Al-Faisal was overheard ruling out a proposal from Iran and Venezuela to discuss pricing crude in a private meeting at the oil cartel’s conference.

In an embarrassing blunder at the meeting in Riyadh, ministers’ microphones were not cut off during a key closed meeting, and Prince Al-Faisal was heard saying: “My feeling is that the mere mention that the Opec countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact that endangers the interests of the countries. “There will be journalists who will seize on this point and we don’t want the dollar to collapse instead of doing something good for Opec.”

After around 40 minutes press officials cut off the feed, which had been accidentally broadcast to the press room.

Prince Al-Faisal added: “This is not new. We have done this in the past: decide to study something without putting down on paper that we are going to study it so that we avoid any implication that will bring adverse effects on our countries’ finances.”

Iran and Venezuela have argued that the meeting’s final communique should voice concern about the level of the dollar, which has recently fallen to new record lows against the euro. They are pushing for oil to be denominated against a basket of currencies.

The greenback also weakened slightly against the pound, although sterling’s own recent weakness has pushed it down from $2.10 to $2.0457 during the week.

Nigerian finance minister Shamsuddeen Usman said that Opec could declare in the communique that: “While underlining our concern for the continued depreciation of the dollar and its adverse impact on our revenues, we instruct our finance ministers to study the issue exhaustively and advise us on ways to safeguard the purchasing power of our revenues, of our members’ revenues.”

Chancellor Alistair Darling will today urge his fellow finance ministers at a major G20 summit to increase investment in oil production and refinement.

Earth Policy Update #67: Peak Oil is Here! 15 November 2007

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Earth Policy Institute
Plan B Update
Embargoed for November 15, 2007, 11:00 AM EST

IS WORLD OIL PRODUCTION PEAKING?

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update67.htm

Lester R. Brown

Is world oil production peaking? Quite possibly. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years. After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.80 mb/d in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 mb/d during the first 10 months of 2007.

The combination of world production slowing down or starting to decline while demand continues to rise rapidly is putting strong upward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, oil prices have climbed from $50 to nearly $100 a barrel. If production growth continues to lag behind the increase in demand, how high will prices go?

There are many ways of assessing the oil production prospect. One is to look at the relationship between oil discoveries and production, a technique pioneered by the legendary U.S. geologist M. King Hubbert. Given the nature of oil production, Hubbert theorized that the time lag between the peaking of new discoveries and that of production was predictable. Noting that the discovery of new reserves in the United States peaked around 1930, he predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil output would peak in 1970. He hit it right on the head.

Globally, oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s. Each year since 1984, world oil production has exceeded new oil discoveries, and by a widening gap. In 2006, the 31 billion barrels of oil extracted far exceeded the discovery of 9 billion barrels.

The aging of oil fields also tells us something about the oil prospect. The world’s 20 largest oil fields were all discovered between 1917 and 1979. (See data at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2007/Update67_data.htm) Sadad al-Husseini, former senior Saudi oil official, reports that the annual output from the world’s aging fields is falling by 4 mb/d. Offsetting this decline with new discoveries or with more-advanced extraction technologies is becoming increasingly difficult.

Yet another way of assessing the oil prospect is to look separately at the leading oil-producing countries where production is falling, the ones where production is still rising, and those that appear to be on the verge of a downturn. Among the leading oil producers, output appears to have peaked and turned downward in a dozen or so and to still be rising in nine.

Among the post-peak countries are the United States, which peaked at 9.6 mb/d in 1970, dropping to 5.1 mb/d in 2006; Venezuela, where output also peaked in 1970; and the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, which peaked in 1999 and 2000.

The pre-peak countries are dominated by Russia, now the world’s leading oil producer, having eclipsed Saudi Arabia in 2006. Two other countries with substantial potential for increasing output are Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is developing the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea, the only large find in recent decades. Other pre-peak countries include Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Among the countries where production may be peaking are Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and China. The big question is (more…)

Lost Soldier: James Blake Miller 12 November 2007

Two video clips, each fairly brief. Together they offer a unique and moving perspective on the Iraq war from the perspective of, well, just watch: JAMES BLAKE MILLER

(The links are fairly small, just beneath the photo of the motorcycle.)

“Whose Mime is it Anyway?” Launches Despite Writers’ Strike 9 November 2007

With the writer’s strike in full swing, I’m benefiting handsomely. My treatment for a new comedy, “Whose Mime is it Anyway?” has been picked up by a major (I can’t tell you which) network. Doesn’t hurt that I’ve already written the pilot and first eight episodes. Enough to stretch into most of a season. With ‘24′ postponed (Kiefer used to be my old body double, so I’m really happy to see him finally get his due), I’m thinking a perfect slot has opened up.

The basic concept is this: World-famous mimes Shields and Yarnell (click this link to jog your memory) are traveling with their four year-old son. Looking to found a Marcel Marceau museum in inner-city Chicago, they lose track of young Preston during a botched convenience store holdup. Shields saves the day by miming himself into a badass gunslinger, but in the commotion young Preston wanders off……and smack into the home of the Dayton Family. Hilarity ensues when the young white mime tries to enlist the help of the urban black family. . .WITHOUT WORDS!! Get it? He’s a mime! He can’t talk! HARHARHARHAHAHA! Oh my god, that’s so darned funny! Isn’t it?

Thinking he’s a racially-insensitive deaf mute with a bad habit for flashing offensive gang signs, the Daytons adopt Preston into their family. Each laugh-track filled episode follows Preston, in full white face makeup, and the Daytons as they try to figure out “WHOSE MIME IS IT ANYWAY???????”

Yeah, I know. It’s fucking genius. And the reason I’m walking funny? My pockets are loaded with cash from FO. . .oh wait, I can’t tell you. Just stay tuned.

6 November 2007

Why Oil Is Skyrocketing

Forget the Peak Oil nonsense. This video spells out the REAL reason: Ligon-Tyrox!

Plan B 2.0 Book Byte #83/ 3.0 Coming Soon! 5 November 2007

A great reminder. Take the time to read it. .. Plan B 3.0 is set to arrive soon. I hope to pick up several copies as the ultimate New Year (for resolutions!) presents.

You can get yours directly through Earth Policy Institute by emailing mjohnson@earthpolicy.org. This way you’ll not only help EPI directly (as opposed to via Amazon), but you’ll get your book far ahead of Amazon’s Jan 16 release.

ECOLABELING: VOTING WITH OUR WALLETS

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch12_ss4.htm

Lester R. Brown

One instrument that can help in the environmental restructuring of the economy is ecolabeling. Labeling products that are produced with environmentally sound practices lets consumers vote with their wallets. Ecolabeling is now used to enable consumers to identify energy-efficient household appliances, forest products from sustainably managed forests, fishery products from sustainably managed fisheries, and “green” electricity from renewable sources.

Among these ecolabels are those awarded by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) for seafood. In March 2000, the MSC launched its fisheries certification program when it approved the Western Australia Rock Lobster fishery. Also earning approval that day was the West Thames Herring fishery. In September 2000, the Alaska salmon fishery became the first American fishery to be certified. Among the key players in the seafood processing and retail sectors supporting the MSC initiative were Europe-based Unilever, Youngs-Bluecrest, and Sainsbury’s.

To be certified, a fishery must demonstrate that it is being managed sustainably. Specifically, according to the MSC: “First, the fishery must be conducted in a way that does not take more fish than can be replenished naturally or [that] kills other species through harmful fishing practices. Secondly, the fishery must operate in a manner that ensures the health and diversity of the marine ecosystem on which it depends. Finally, the fishery must respect local, national, and international laws and regulations for responsible and sustainable fishing.” By October 2007 there were 23 certified fisheries worldwide supplying some 2.5 million tons of seafood.

The MSC’s counterpart for forest products is the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), which was founded in 1993 by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and other groups. It provides information on forest management practices within the forest products industry. Some of the world’s forests are managed to sustain a steady harvest in perpetuity; others are clearcut, decimated overnight in the quest for (more…)